One of the most popular arguments for new MMA fans to make is that they love the sport because it's so unpredictable. Anyone can win any fight, they say, and odds in the ballpark of 60-40 are usually put forth as proof to this lack of disparity in MMA. As an expert in the field, I too believe that MMA is unpredictable, but not because of who wins the fights. Tito Ortiz's mouth is unpredictable, Clay Guida's hair is unpredictable, but the sport itself? No. Although 2007 was often called the year of the upset, MMA (and the UFC specifically) offer less of the unknown than most sports do. In just about every other professional sport, a season can be as tumultuous as a Britney Spears night on the town. In MMA, however, there is much less year-to-year change and fighters rarely change who they are. For example, Chuck Liddell will never turn into a grappler. Keith Jardine will always put his palms out and look for the leg kicks. The point is that MMA is far more predictable than people think. To attempt to prove this hypothesis, I researched betting odds for every UFC main event between UFC 40 and UFC 87.
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Cage Potato brings us this prediction straight from the Brazilian's mouth, through Tatame:
"I believe this fight won't go to decision. Thiago likes to fight aggressively, me too, he has good MMA techniques, so I believe this fight might finish before the third round."
Bloody Elbow brings us this quote, in which an anticipatory Liddell explains his dissatisfaction over having to win again before a title shot:
"I figured because I held the title for so long, I would be getting a title shot after I beat Silva but for whatever reason it didn't work out that way."
Bloody Elbow picked up this little gem from one of Liddell's sponsors:
To hype December's fight, Iceman RX is holding a sweepstakes starting on September 1 and ending on December 27 (to coincide with Liddell's appearance at UFC 92). The winner receives a special edition Chuck Liddell Iceman Rx Hummer H2.
This means that Machida is two wins away from a title shot. Look for Machida (with a win) to take on either Wanderlei, Shogun, or Rampage early in 2009.
MMA Junkie reports that Tyson Griffin will not cut to 145 pounds in order to rematch with Urijah Faber, nor is the cut even possible ofr Griffin to make. Griffin represents Faber's lone black spot on his MMA resume.
5 Ounces has picked up this little diatribe by Brett Rogers, who is understandably upset after not being awarded the Kimbo fight:
Caught between a Shamrock and a hard place, Kevin has chosen the old over the new; the past over the future. But Fergi...the hard place is coming. By putting us off, making us wait will only make matters worse. There is nothing business about it anymore. Kimbo made it a point to go frontin' to our boys at Big Black. But that street thug B.S. might work well with the fan bois and the Internet dorks who think your street cred means something; but Son...Brett comes from Cabrini Green; the worst 12 blocks of America. Compared to that your street is Sesame Street. So you can say it is very personal between Brett and Fergi. So go ahead and make us wait while you fight Tank and Shamrock. Hell, why not fight Hackney, Harold Howard, Fred Ettish and the rest of Jurassic MMA? And while your shuckin' and duckin' we will be hustlin' and muscilin' and when the bell finally tolls the only real question left is...do you wake up looking at canvas or arena lights?
Some reports suggested that Quinton Jackson would wait until December to fight, but a report by MMA Junkie now says that Jackson will fight at UFC 91, on the same card as Kenny Florian & Joe Stevenson.
Matt Hughes on Tuesday provided an update on the status of his knee injury via his personal blog. The outlook for the multi-time UFC welterweight champion is promising. It appears he may not need surgery.
"Last Wednesday, I went in for my second MRI and also a stress x-ray. It all came back very positive and looks as though I will not need surgery," wrote Hughes.
"I still have to go back for my three-month check-up to find out more; but as of right now I can do more and start exercising a little bit."
Hughes sustained the injury in a non-title fight against Thiago Alves at UFC 85 on June 7 in London. In a blog entry written shortly after the fight, Hughes confirmed that he had partially torn the ACL ligament in his knee.
There is hope that he will be healed up for a fight with Matt Serra in early 2009, possibly as soon as January or February.
Sengoku is Japan's second biggest MMA company, behind only Dream. But both groups are question marks going forward. Sadaharu Tanikawa, who heads Fighting Entertainment Group, the parent company of Dream, has noted that if the company doesn't get a strong television rating on its Sept. 23 show, its future is in question.
Sengoku is in even worse shape. Sunday's show drew about 10,000 fans, maybe half-full, to the Saitama Super Arena, but in Japan free tickets are not hard to come by. The group has no television in Japan, and does almost no numbers on pay-per-view, while putting on expensive first-class shows.
"Of course he'll fight," White said. "If he was doing drugs, if he had been drunk, if he had gone out there and done what he did because he was pissed off at someone, that would be a completely different story. But he was ill. And in this company, we support our friends and anyone who works for us when they're ill and have problems. He was ill, the incident occurred, and now he's fine.
"Rampage feels awful about the woman's baby, but he had nothing to do with it. And the (traffic incident) occurred because he was very ill and not with him in control of his faculties."
Many reports have suggested that Joey Villasenor and Robbie Lawler could meet in what would be surely a fight of the year candidate (although we said that about Huerta/Florian, didn't we?). However, 5 Ounces reports that Eddie Alvarez, the fighter who burst onto the scene with an impressive showing at DREAM, could be another alternative.
Despite earlier reports that Brett Rogers would wait to face the winner of the Shamrock/Slice bout, it now appears that Brett Rogers will return to action on the November 8th Showtime card. Nick Diaz and Joey Villasenor, two of EliteXC's best fighters, are also scheduled to appear. MMA Junkie with the story break.
